Can Congressional Republicans Be Big, Beautiful -- and Pro-Family?

‘One”? Yes. And “big”? Unquestionably. But whether the ideas packed into congressional Republicans’ reconciliation tax package are “beautiful” or not will certainly be in the eyes of the beholder.

“The One, Big, Beautiful Bill” brought to the House Ways and Means Committee on Tuesday is what happens when a laundry list of campaign promises meets the reality of a razor-thin congressional majority. When every member of Congress has at least some leverage, no one wants to see his or her pet issue left out. So in addition to extending the 2017 tax cuts, the package is currently stacked with more add-ons than a Mad Max vehicle.

The “say yes to everything” strategy didn’t work out well for the Biden administration in 2021. But with tax rates scheduled to go up at the end of this year, Republicans in Congress know failure is not an option. And some of what they’ve crammed into their legislative vehicle is right on the merits.

From a pro-family perspective, for example, the most notable part of the legislation is a four-year bump in the child tax credit (CTC), from its current $2,000 level to $2,500 for the remainder of President Donald Trump’s second term. After the four-year boost, the credit would be scheduled to fall back to $2,000, albeit newly indexed for inflation.

The CTC is the most family-friendly part of the tax code. It recognizes that parents bear the cost of raising the next generation in a way that nonparents don’t. For many families filing a simple tax return, the CTC is one of the most salient parts of the tax code (a similar, temporary boost in the standard deduction will go unnoticed by many). Republicans helped create the CTC in the 1990s and expanded it in 2001, 2003, and 2017. If they boost it again in 2025, it may well end up being the bill’s signature accomplishment.

Other provisions may help families as well, at least indirectly. Companies that provide child care benefits to their employees would be able to deduct a larger portion of their expenses, which could mean more options for working parents. A tax credit for employers who provide paid leave has also been expanded, and the adoption tax credit has been made refundable. If the bill passes, gym membership or fees for sports participation could be considered deductible medical expenses. Donors to educational scholarships would be able to take a tax credit for helping make school choice a reality, and taxpayers who do not itemize their deductions would be able to partially deduct their charitable donations.

None of these are game-changers, but they represent the various interests leadership desperately wants to keep onside. And sometimes those same intraparty intricacies lead to bad policy choices. Representatives from high-tax blue states are urging the GOP to repeal the cap on deducting state and local taxes, which was one of the best parts of 2017’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. No taxes on tips, overtime, or car loans are all distortive, clunky, and expensive policy choices. But they make the cut because they are a presidential priority. Seniors, too, are given a handout in the form of a bonus to their standard deduction.

Another provision that may be billed as pro-family, but isn’t, is the creation of “MAGA Accounts,” a brainchild of Senator Ted Cruz (R., Texas). It would give each child a $1,000 fund, to which parents could add their own money, leveraging compound interest to build up a head start on tuition or a home purchase when that child turns 18. These accounts may help some parents think about saving more for the long term, but that’s a very different policy solution from one aimed at getting parents money when they need it most -- around the time of a child’s birth -- or reducing the cost of raising children to combat declining birth rates.

And while the increase in the overall amount of the CTC is welcome, it was also a partial missed opportunity. When low- to moderate-income workers don’t owe much in federal income taxes, they often receive the additional child tax credit, which this legislation does not touch (the most a moderate-income family could receive would stay at $1,700 per kid). As the parties realign along class lines, working-class families are increasingly the backbone of the Republican coalition. The “one, big, beautiful” approach unfortunately leaves too many of them high and dry.

Other efforts at tightening welfare eligibility could leave low-income families worse off. Well-intentioned efforts to reduce fraud in the earned-income tax credit run the risk of introducing more complexity for families in the $20,000 to $30,000 range. And even adults with elementary-school-age children would be required to work in exchange for receiving SNAP benefits, an escalation from previous work requirement efforts.

Overall, the legislation has something for everyone. But the amalgamation of tax policies, ranging from the expensive to the gimmicky, leaves Republicans facing a tightrope walk to secure passage. And it all adds up. The Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that the package, as it stands, will increase the federal deficit by $3.8 trillion over ten years. This is a far cry from fiscal responsibility.

The Biden administration tried a “something for everyone” approach in its signature “Build Back Better” approach but came up short, largely because then-Senator Joe Manchin had prescient fears of rising inflation. Now it’s Republicans’ turn for a smorgasbord. They seem to be hoping that their “beautiful” bill adds up to more than the sum of its many, many parts.

Will members swallow nearly $4 trillion in additional spending if it gives them the various policy wins they crave? Or will this effort crack up under its own weight? If the latter looks likely, the GOP’s decision-makers may have to be a little more deliberate about what they prioritize. And with just a couple of votes to spare in each chamber, those decisions may come sooner rather than later.